THE STATE EDUCATION DEPARTMENT / THE UNIVERSITY OF THE STATE OF NEW YORK / ALBANY, NY 12234

 

TO:	The Honorable the Members of the Board of Regents
FROM:	James A. Kadamus
COMMITTEE:	EMSC-VESID
TITLE OF ITEM:	Assessment:  Data on Student Performance on Regents Exams
DATE OF SUBMISSION:	December 9, 2004
PROPOSED HANDLING:	Discussion
RATIONALE FOR ITEM:	Policy Development
STRATEGIC GOAL:	Goals 1 and 2
AUTHORIZATION(S):

 

 

 

SUMMARY:

 

In November, the Regents EMSC-VESID Committee developed a framework of five questions for discussion of assessment and graduation issues.  In December, data are provided to support discussion of two of those questions:  What is the effect of averaging scores on the five required Regents exams?  What is the effect of permitting students to meet graduation standards if they pass four of the five required Regents exams?

 

To provide a context for discussion of these two questions, this report begins with an analysis of the Regents examination performance and educational outcomes of students who first entered grade 9 in the 2000-01 school year.

 

The attached analyses provide the following information:

 

q       An analysis of the cohort of students who first entered grade 9 in 2000-01.

q       Performance of students in the 1996-2000 school accountability cohorts on Regents examinations in English and mathematics.

q       The outcomes of students who first entered grade 9 in 2000-01.

q       Data on Total Graduates and Ninth-Grade Retention.

q       Regents examination performance of students who first entered grade 9 in 2000-01.

q       Regents examination performance of general-education students who first entered grade 9 in 2000 by outcome on June 30, 2004.

 

 

q       Patterns of Regents examination scores for students who first entered grade 9 in 2000.

 

Attachment

 

An Analysis of the Cohort of Students Who First Entered Grade 9 in 2000

The Department’s System for Tracking Educational Performance (STEP) has collected individual student records for all students in grades 9-12 and younger students who take Regents examinations. These data now allow us to follow the progress of virtually all students who first entered grade 9 in the 2000-01 school year. The study of these students’ records represents the most thorough and complete analysis of a cohort of New York State students ever presented. We are now able to account for more students because we collect individual student data records that allow us to link all reported State assessment data with the educational outcome for each student.  In 2005-06, we will begin implementing an enhanced data collection system that includes statewide unique identifiers for each student, thus allowing us to make these linkages even when the student transfers across districts. This full implementation of the enhanced data-collection system will allow us to report graduation rate and examination results with increasing accuracy.

This study includes students who first enrolled in grade 9 during the 2000-01 school year (or were ungraded and reached their seventeenth birthday during that school year) and who were enrolled in a public school in New York State in at least part of the 2001-02, 2002-03, or 2003-04 school years and for whom a district submitted a STEP record in August 2004; that is, students in the 2000 cohort.

The 2004 STEP file included records for 222,720 students reported to have first entered grade 9 in 2000. Of those records, 199,312 reported students who had graduated, dropped out, entered a general education development (GED) program, or were still enrolled in the district as of June 30, 2004.

Records for 23,408 students reported that the student had transferred to another district at some time between first entering grade 9 in the 2000-01 school year and June 30, 2004. These records were believed to be duplicates of records reported by the districts to which the students transferred. Therefore, records ending in transfers to another district were not included in the study. 

The population studied was 199,312 students who were reported to the Department as first entering grade 9 in the 2000-01 school year, and who had graduated, earned an Individualized Education Program (IEP) diploma, dropped out, entered a GED program, or were still enrolled in a district on June 30, 2004. The number of students in this study compares favorably with the number of students tested on the middle-level English language arts (ELA) and mathematics tests in the spring of 2000. Members of the 2000 cohort were in grade 8 at that time and 196,501 took the ELA assessment; 198,512 took the mathematics assessment. Some students did not take the middle-level assessments because of absence, exemption through their individualized education program or eligibility for an alternative measure for limited English proficient students.

 

Conclusions

The results of these analyses of the 2000 cohort after four years of high school (that is, as of June 30, 2004) are as follows:

§                     Statewide, 92 percent of general-education students who took all five Regents exams achieved a score of at least 55, and 77 percent achieved a score of at least 65. These students completed the coursework needed to prepare for the required Regents examinations in the first four years of high school.

§                     A total of 67.4 percent of all students (general-education students and students with disabilities) graduated with a local or Regents diploma in four years as of June 30, 2004. Another 1.4 percent received an IEP diploma. Over 17 percent were still enrolled, 12 percent dropped out, and 2 percent entered a GED program. Graduation data for previous cohorts suggest that the graduation rate will increase to 74 percent for this group as of June 2005.

§                     The data cannot be directly compared to previous years because the improved data collection system collects data on more students in the cohort. However, the total number of graduates (from this and all other cohorts) has increased each year since 1995-96. The number of graduates increased from 143,818 in 2002-03 to 153,202 in 2003-04.

§                     The vast majority of students who dropped out or entered GED programs did not take Regents exams during the four years before June 30, 2004. Very few general-education students who dropped out or entered GED programs took Regents exams and scored between 0 and 54. The percentage of dropouts who scored 0-54 ranged from 3 percent for U. S. history and government to 12 percent for mathematics.

§                     Of the 178,050 general-education students, 17,690 (10 percent) had no reported Regents exam scores in four years, 29,166 (16 percent) took between one and four Regents exams, and 130,924 (74 percent) took all five required Regents exams.

§                     Why had so many students not taken the five required Regents examinations after four years of high school? Under-performing middle schools left many students unprepared for some or all of their high school courses. In 2000, when students in this cohort took the middle-level ELA and mathematics assessments, 13.4 percent of students statewide—and 23.6 percent of students in New York City—scored at Level 1 on the ELA assessment. Comparable Level 1 percentages on the mathematics assessment were 25.1 percent statewide and 44.3 percent in New York City. These Level 1 students needed remedial courses before starting the courses covering the Regents curriculum. In all likelihood, many of these students failed courses and may need five or six years to graduate.

§                     Students who first entered grade 9 in 2000-01 relied less on the 55-64 score range in all subjects except mathematics to meet graduation requirements than students in previous cohorts. For example, the percentage of school accountability cohort members scoring 55-64 in English fell from 9.5 to 5.6 percent between the 1999 and 2000 cohorts.

§                     Very few students who had taken examinations during the four years had failing scores at the end of the fourth year of high school. Statewide, the percentage of students (general-education students and students with disabilities) scoring 0-54 on each exam ranged from 3 percent in U.S. history and government to 9 percent in mathematics.

§                     Four years after entering grade 9, large numbers of students who attended New York City schools, students with disabilities, and limited English proficient (LEP) students had not been tested on the five required Regents exams. From 29 to 38 percent of all New York City students had not taken each of the five examinations. About 40 percent of LEP students and students with disabilities had not taken each examination.

§                     Fewer students scored at Level 1 on the middle-level assessments in 2004 than in 2000. Further, fewer students are being held back in grade 9 each year. The percentage held back has declined from 20.1 percent in 1998 to 14.9 percent in 2003, the last year for which data are available. These factors indicate that more students are prepared for high school work.

 

 

Performance of Students in the 1996-2000 School Accountability Cohorts on Regents Examinations in English and Mathematics

Not all students that first entered grade 9 in 2000-01 met the requirements for inclusion in a school accountability cohort, the cohort that SED uses to determine Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) for high schools. To put the performance of these students in historical context, Table 1 compares the performance of students who were members of a 2000 school accountability cohort with the performance of past school accountability cohorts. Of the 199,312 students in this study, 169,823 (85.2 percent) met the criteria for membership in a school accountability cohort.

Table 1 provides a summary of the percentages of school accountability cohort members who achieved scores of 55-100 and 65-100 on the Regents English and mathematics examinations for the 1996 through 2000 cohorts. No mathematics data are provided for the 1996 cohort, since students in that cohort were not required to take a Regents mathematics examination to earn a local diploma. Statistics are provided for general-education students, students with disabilities, and all cohort members. Cohort membership increased over these years, particularly for students with disabilities. The number of students with disabilities in the 2000 cohort was 53 percent greater than the number in the 1996 cohort. This increase can be attributed to more accurate and inclusive reporting of students with disabilities in the cohort as well as refinements in the cohort definition. Students with disabilities working toward Individualized Education Program Diplomas were excluded from the 1996 cohort. Students with disabilities who were eligible to take the New York State Alternate Assessment were excluded from the 1997 through 1999 cohorts. It is reasonable to assume that high-performing students with disabilities were included in the early cohorts and students added in later cohorts were more severely disabled.

In English, the percentage of general-education cohort members scoring 65 or higher increased between the 1996 and 2000 cohorts, from 74.5 to 83.2 percent, while the percentage scoring between 55 and 64 decreased from 15.5 percent to 5.1 percent. In mathematics, the percentage scoring 65 or higher decreased slightly and the percentage of students scoring 55-64 increased slightly between the 1997 and 2000 cohorts. The percentage of students with disabilities scoring 65 or higher in English was higher in the 2000 cohort than in any previous cohort, despite the larger number of these students included in the cohort. The percentage of students with disabilities scoring 65 or higher in mathematics was over nine percentage points lower in the 2000 cohort than in the 1997 cohort.

Table 1

The Percentage of General-Education Students and Students with Disabilities Scoring 55-100 and 65-100

1996-2000 School Accountability Cohorts

* Students in this cohort were not required to take a Regents mathematics examination to earn a local diploma.

 

The Outcomes of Students Who First Entered Grade 9 in 2000-01

 

Tables 2 through 5 show the number and percentage of students who had graduated, were still enrolled, had transferred to general education development (GED) programs, or dropped out statewide as of June 30, 2004. Separate tables are provided for all students, general-education students, students with disabilities, and limited English proficient (LEP) students.

These tables show that many students were still enrolled on that date. These students may have graduated in August 2004 or may graduate during the 2004-05 school year. Cohort studies produced by the New York City Department of Education show that many students graduate after a fifth, sixth, or even seventh year of high school. A New York City Department of Education report, The Class of 2000: Final Longitudinal Report—A Three-Year Follow-Up Study, shows that, while 46.2 percent of students who entered grade 9 in 1996 had earned a high school diploma at the end of four years, 60.1 had earned diplomas by the end of seven years. By that time, an additional 7.9 percent of the cohort had earned a high school equivalency diploma. A large majority earned their credentials by the end of year 5.

Table 2 shows that, by June 30, 2004, over 67 percent of students who first entered grade 9 in 2000-01 had received a Regents or local diploma and an additional 17 percent were still enrolled and working toward a diploma. Statewide, 11.9 percent of students in this cohort had dropped out.  Data for students who first entered grade 9 in 1999-2000 show that 13,000 students earned diplomas between August 2003 and June 2004. If a comparable number of students in the 2000 cohort earn diplomas between August 2004 and June 2005, the five-year graduation rate for this cohort will be about 74 percent.

 

Table 2

The Percentages of General-Education Students and Students with Disabilities in the Group by Outcome as of June 30, 2004

Outcome as of June 30, 2004	Total Public
	Number	Percent
Regents/Local Diploma	134,248	67.4%
IEP Diploma	2,889	1.4
Still Enrolled	34,548	17.3
Transferred to GED	3,615	1.8
Dropped Out	23,796	11.9
Other Exit	216	0.1
Total	199,312	100.0

 

Table 3 shows that by June 30, 2004, almost 70 percent of general-education students statewide had received a Regents or local diploma and another 16.4 percent were still enrolled and working toward a diploma.  Statewide, 11.8 percent had dropped out and 1.8 percent had transferred to a GED program.

Table 3

The Percentages of General Education Students in the Group by Outcome as of June 30, 2004

Outcome as of June 30, 2004	Total Public
	Number	Percent
Regents/Local Diploma	124,489	69.9%
Still Enrolled	29,114	16.4
Transferred to GED	3,235	1.8
Dropped Out	21,031	11.8
Other Exit	181	0.1
Total	178,050	100.0

 

Table 4 shows that, while students with disabilities were less likely than other students to have graduated in four years, one-quarter were still enrolled. On June 30, 2004, 45.9 percent of students with disabilities had received a Regents or local diploma; another 13.6 had earned Individualized Education Program (IEP) Diplomas; 25.6 percent were still enrolled and working toward a high school diploma or an IEP diploma. Statewide, 13.0 percent of students with disabilities had dropped out and another 1.8 percent had transferred to GED programs.

 

Table 4

The Percentages of Students with Disabilities in the Group by Outcome as of June 30, 2004

Outcome as of June 30, 2004	Total Public
	Number	Percent
Regents/Local Diploma	9,759	45.9%
Earned IEP Diploma	2,889	13.6
Still Enrolled	5,434	25.6
Transferred to GED	380	1.8
Dropped Out	2,765	13.0
Other Exit	35	0.2
Total	21,262	100.0

 

LEP students in the 2000 cohort were less likely to have graduated and more likely to be enrolled on June 30, 2004 than any other group (Table 5). Statewide, almost 35 percent had graduated, but almost four in ten were still enrolled. LEP students also had a higher dropout rate than any other student group, 23.9 percent statewide. 

About 80 percent of LEP students are in New York City, and the data presented here are consistent with, but somewhat better than, the data historically reported by the New York City Board of Education. By contrast, former LEP students in New York City (almost 18,000 of their annual cohort) typically graduate at a higher rate even than students who have never been LEP. A report published by the New York City Department of Education, The Class of 2000: Final Longitudinal Report—A Three-Year Follow-Up Study, stated the following statistics for students who first entered grade 9 in 1996 (and were scheduled to graduate in 2000): Four years after entering grade 9, 32.6 percent of 8,791 current LEP students had earned credentials, as had 60.1 percent of 10,996 former LEP students, and 54.5 percent of 42,157 students who had never been classified as LEP. Seven years after entering grade 9, the percentages earning credentials had increased to 49.5, 76.5, and 70.5 percent of current, former and never LEP students, respectively. The credentials earned included high school diplomas, IEP diplomas, and high school equivalency diplomas.

Table 5

The Percentages of Limited English Proficient in the Group by Outcome as of June 30, 2004

Outcome as of June 30, 2004	Total Public
	Number	Percent
Regents/Local Diploma	3,773	34.5%
Earned IEP Diploma	110	1.0
Still Enrolled	4,279	39.1
Transferred to GED	160	1.5
Dropped Out	2,610	23.9
Other Exit	8	0.1
Total	10,940	100.0

 

 

Data on Total Graduates and Ninth-Grade Retention

 

It is not possible to compare the graduation rates reported in the section above with previous cohort graduation rates because the new data system includes students for whom data were not previously collected. However, it is possible to compare the total number of graduates each year for nearly a decade. This number includes all those students who graduated during an academic year, not just the number from one cohort; for example, the total number of students graduating in 2003-04 may include students who entered 9th grade in 2000-01 and in prior years. Table 6 shows an increase in the number of graduates each year, with a larger increase between 2002-03 and 2003-04, yet high school enrollment has not increased a comparable amount.

 

Table 6

Total Public High School Graduates

 

Year	Number of Graduates
1995-96	136,754
1996-97	138,990
1997-98	139,531
1998-99	140,365
1999-00	141,510
2000-01	141,634
2001-02	143,070
2002-03	143,818
2003-04	153,202

 

 

An indication of readiness for high school is the number of students held back in  grade 9 each year. A review of those data submitted by school districts shows that since the fall of 1998 fewer students have been held back in 9th grade each year (Table 7).

 

Table 7

Percentage of Public School Ninth Grade Students Who Repeat the Grade

Fall 1995 to Fall 2002

 

	FALL 1995	FALL 1996	FALL 1997	FALL 1998	FALL 1999	FALL 2000	FALL 2001	FALL 2002
NYC	28.3	32.2	34.8	35.3	35.7	29.4	27.2	25.7
Total Public	16.0	17.7	19.5	20.1	19.9	16.9	15.6	14.9

 

 

Regents Examination Performance of Students Who First Entered Grade 9 in 2000-01

The following analyses show the performance of students who first entered grade 9 in 2000-01 on the Regents examinations required for graduation. Each table shows student results for New York City, Rest of State, and Total Public. Separate tables display the performance of all students, general-education students, students with disabilities, and LEP students. The table for each student group provides information on the percentages of these students in each subject area — English, mathematics, global history, U. S. history and government, and science — who had not taken a Regents examination, and whose highest score was 0-54, 55-64, or 65-100.

The analysis uses the highest reported score achieved by each student on a Regents examination in each of the following areas: English, mathematics, global history, U.S. history, and science. The Regents Examination in Sequential Mathematics, Course I was available to students in this cohort until January 2002, their second year of high school. It is likely that a majority of these students took the Regents mathematics course I examination rather than the Regents mathematics A examination. Student performance data for the Regents examination in mathematics A administered in January and June 2004 suggest that mathematics data for future cohorts may be more similar to data for other required Regents examinations. Of students who took those administrations of the examination, 77 percent scored 65 or higher. Many of the remaining students can be expected to retake the examination and achieve higher scores.

In Spring 2000, when students in this cohort were in eighth grade and took the middle-level ELA and mathematics assessments, 13.4 percent of students statewide—and 23.6 percent of students in New York City—scored at Level 1 on the ELA assessment. Comparable Level 1 percentages on the mathematics assessment were 25.1 percent statewide and 44.3 percent in New York City. In 2004, smaller percentages of students scored at Level 1. Statewide 7.4 percent of eighth-graders—and 11.4 percent of New York City students—scored at Level 1 on the ELA assessment. On the mathematics assessment, 13.9 percent statewide and 22.5 percent of New York City students scored at Level 1. The improved performance on the mathematics A examination in 2004 together with the decreasing percentage of students scoring at Level 1 on the middle-level assessments suggest that a larger percentage of future cohorts will meet the testing requirements for graduation within four years of entering grade 9.

All Students

Statewide, the percentage of students who met the assessment requirement for graduation by scoring 65 or higher on a Regents examination ranged from 63.1 percent in mathematics to 72.3 percent in science (Table 8). The percentage who met the competency requirement for a local diploma by scoring 55 to 64 on a Regents examination ranged from 3.9 percent in U.S. history to 9.1 percent in mathematics. 

In each subject area, the percentage of New York City students achieving scores of 65 or higher was lower than that of students elsewhere by at least 20 percentage points. A larger percentage of New York City students also used the 55-64 score range to meet graduation requirements.

Table 8

Regents Examination Performance of All Students Who Entered Grade 9 in 2000-01

Examination	Not Tested	Percent of Tested Students Scoring
		0-54	55-64	65-100
New York City
English	30.9%	7.7%	7.8%	53.6%
Mathematics	32.3	10.6	12.9	44.2
Global History	29.2	8.4	7.2	55.2
U.S. History	38.2	4.3	4.8	52.7
Science	30.2	7.0	10.3	52.5
Rest of State
English	14.4	4.0	4.3	77.3
Mathematics	13.0	7.9	7.2	72.0
Global History	13.4	3.4	4.7	78.5
U.S. History	15.5	2.4	3.4	78.7
Science	11.4	2.3	3.7	82.6
Total Public
English	20.1	5.3	5.5	69.1
Mathematics	19.6	8.8	9.1	63.1
Global History	18.8	5.1	5.5	70.6
U.S. History	23.3	3.1	3.9	69.8
Science	17.9	3.9	6.0	72.3

 

General-Education Students

In each subject area, statewide more than three-quarters of general-education students had met the assessment requirement for a local diploma. The percentage of general-education students who met the assessment requirement for graduation by scoring 65 or higher on a Regents examination ranged from 66.8 percent in mathematics to 75.7 percent in science (Table 9). The percentage who met the competency requirement for a local diploma by scoring 55 to 64 on a Regents examination ranged from 3.4 percent in U.S. history to 9.3 percent in mathematics. Very few students scored 0-54, ranging from 2.3 percent in U.S. history to 7.0 percent in mathematics.

These data suggest that the majority of Rest of State districts were very successful in ensuring that their students achieved proficiency in the required areas. In each subject area, at least 85 percent of general-education students in these districts had met the assessment requirement for a local diploma. In every area except mathematics, from 83 to 87 percent of students had scored 65 or higher.

 

Table 9

Regents Examination Performance of General-Education Students Who Entered Grade 9 in 2000-01

Examination	Not Tested	Percent of Tested Students Scoring
		0-54	55-64	65-100
New York City
English	30.1%	6.7%	7.7%	55.5%
Mathematics	31.2	9.6	13.2	46.0
Global History	28.3	7.7	7.0	57.1
U.S. History	37.1	3.9	4.7	54.3
Science	29.2	6.3	10.1	54.4
Rest of State
English	10.7	1.9	3.6	83.7
Mathematics	8.9	5.5	7.0	78.6
Global History	9.9	2.0	3.7	84.4
U.S. History	11.8	1.4	2.7	84.1
Science	7.7	1.5	3.0	87.8
Total Public
English	17.7	3.7	5.1	73.5
Mathematics	17.0	7.0	9.3	66.8
Global History	16.6	4.1	4.9	74.5
U.S. History	21.0	2.3	3.4	73.3
Science	15.5	3.3	5.6	75.7

 

Students with Disabilities

Statewide, students with disabilities in the 2000 cohort were less likely than other students to have taken and achieved passing scores on Regents examinations in each of the five required areas. The percentage of students with disabilities who met the assessment requirement for graduation by scoring 65 or higher on a Regents examination ranged from 26.2 percent in mathematics to 43.4 percent in science (Table 10). Students with disabilities were more likely than general-education students to use the 55-64 score range in every subject area except mathematics. The percentage who met the competency requirement for a local diploma by scoring 55 to 64 on a Regents examination ranged from 7.4 percent in U.S. history to 11.4 percent in global history. Students with disabilities who fail a Regents exam are allowed to meet the competency requirement for a local diploma by passing the corresponding Regents competency test(s) (RCTs) in the five required subject areas.

 

Table 10

Regents Examination Performance of Students with Disabilities Who Entered Grade 9 in 2000

Examination	Not Tested	Percent of Tested Students Scoring
		0-54	55-64	65-100
New York City
English	46.2%	25.3%	9.1%	19.4%
Mathematics	52.8	28.1	7.7	11.3
Global History	45.0	21.9	11.0	22.1
U.S. History	56.4	12.4	6.3	25.0
Science	49.4	18.1	13.3	19.2
Rest of State
English	38.3	17.4	9.0	35.3
Mathematics	39.2	23.4	8.2	29.3
Global History	35.7	12.6	11.5	40.2
U.S. History	39.9	8.8	7.7	43.6
Science	35.6	7.5	8.4	48.5
Total Public
English	39.7	18.8	9.0	32.6
Mathematics	41.5	24.2	8.1	26.2
Global History	37.3	14.2	11.4	37.1
U.S. History	42.8	9.4	7.4	40.4
Science	38.0	9.4	9.2	43.4

 

 

Limited English Proficient Students

A significant portion of LEP students had not taken Regents examinations in each of the required areas by June 30, 2004. Table 5 shows that many of the LEP students were still enrolled and can be expected to take additional examinations in the 2004-05 school year. Statewide, the percentage of LEP students who met the assessment requirement for graduation by scoring 65 or higher on a Regents examination ranged from 32.3 percent in English to 43.3 percent in global history (Table 11). Predictably, LEP students, compared with student with disabilities, had less difficulty with the mathematics exam and greater difficulty with the English exam. LEP students, like students with disabilities, were more likely than other students to use the 55-64  score range to meet graduation requirements. The percentage who met the competency requirement for a local diploma by scoring 55 to 64 on a Regents examination ranged from 7.1 percent in U.S. history to 13.5 percent in science.

 

Table 11

Regents Examination Performance of Limited English Proficient Students Who Entered Grade 9 in 2000-01

Examination	Not Tested	Percent of Tested Students Scoring
		0-54	55-64	65-100
New York City
English	41.3%	16.2%	13.0%	29.5%
Mathematics	39.5	12.2	12.1	36.2
Global History	35.0	13.3	9.4	42.3
U.S. History	46.5	7.4	6.9	39.1
Science	37.8	13.3	14.0	34.9
Rest of State
English	34.4	11.4	11.0	43.2
Mathematics	31.9	13.3	11.3	43.6
Global History	35.1	9.4	7.9	47.6
U.S. History	35.7	5.9	7.6	50.8
Science	28.2	7.3	11.7	52.8
Total Public
English	39.9	15.2	12.6	32.3
Mathematics	37.9	12.4	12.0	37.7
Global History	35.0	12.5	9.1	43.3
U.S. History	44.3	7.1	7.1	41.5
Science	35.8	12.1	13.5	38.6

 

 

 

Regents Examination Performance of General-Education Students Who First Entered Grade 9 in 2000-01 by Outcome on June 30, 2004

 

This section focuses on the Regents examination performance of general-education students by outcome on June 30, 2004. Tables 12-15 show the performance of graduates, still enrolled students, dropouts, and transfers to GED programs in each of the required subject areas.

Table 12 shows the Regents examination performance of 124,489 general-education students in this group who had earned local or Regents diplomas by June 30, 2004. In four of the five subject areas, fewer than four percent of these students used the 55-64 safety net. With the exception of mathematics, in each subject area, 92 to 94 percent of these students had earned scores of 65 or higher and fewer than four percent had scored between 55 and 64. In mathematics, 85.3 percent had earned a score of at least 65 and 8.7 percent had earned a score between 55 and 64.

 

Table 12

Regents Examination Performance of General-Education Students Who Entered Grade 9 in 2000 and Graduated by June 30, 2004

Examination	Not Tested	Percent of Tested Students Scoring
		0-54	55-64	65-100
English	1.6%	1.0%	3.9%	93.5%
Mathematics	2.0	4.0	8.7	85.3
Global History	3.7	0.7	3.2	92.3
U.S. History	3.0	0.5	2.6	93.8
Science	2.3	0.5	3.8	93.5

 

All students were required to take Regents examinations in the five required areas to earn a local or Regents diploma. Nevertheless, Regents examinations were not reported for all students who graduated. Graduates may not have had a Regents score reported for the following reasons:

·                    The graduate moved to New York State in the eleventh or twelfth grade and was not required to take the global history or science assessment to graduate.

·                    The graduate passed an approved alternative to meet the requirement (fewer than one percent of graduates).

·                    The graduate's district allowed students to use an examination approved under a previous Department waiver (such as New York City's portfolio schools).

·                    The graduate's district failed to report the score to the Department.

 

Table 3 showed that 29,114 general-education students were still enrolled in a diploma-granting program on June 30, 2004. In each subject area except mathematics, 42 percent or more of these students had earned scores of 65 or higher on Regents exams (Table 13). In mathematics, a smaller percentage had done so, 35.7 percent. In each subject area, these students were more likely than graduates to have scored 55-64. The percentage of students whose highest score was between 55 and 64 ranged from 8.6 percent in U.S. history to 16.2 percent in mathematics. Altogether, between 51 and 63 percent scored 55 or more on each examination. A large percentage had no reported score on each Regents exam – from 24 percent in global history to 40 percent in U.S. history, which is generally not taken before the end of the third year of high school and is frequently taken later.

 Conclusion: Overall, general-education students who are still enrolled after four years are unlikely to have scored 0-54, and most likely to have scored 65 to 100. A significant percentage have not been tested on all exams, probably because they have not successfully completed the coursework necessary to take the examinations.

Table 13

Regents Examination Performance of General-Education Students Who Entered Grade 9 in 2000-01 and Were Still Enrolled on June 30, 2004

Examination	Not Tested	Percent of Tested Students Scoring
		0-54	55-64	65-100
English	29.1%	14.3%	12.4%	44.3%
Mathematics	31.9	16.2	16.2	35.7
Global History	23.5	14.5	12.3	49.7
U.S. History	39.9	9.6	8.6	41.9
Science	26.2	11.1	13.9	48.8

 

Statewide, 21,031 (11.8 percent) of general-education students in the 2000 cohort had dropped out and another 3,235 (1.8 percent) had transferred to GED programs as of June 30, 2004 (Table 3). In each subject area, the majority of students who dropped out had not taken a Regents examination. In each subject area, those students who had taken an exam were more likely to have scored 55 or higher than to have failed the exam.

These students were most likely to have taken the Regents examinations in mathematics, global history, and science, which are generally taken in the first two years of high school. Each of those examinations had been taken by 25 to 30 percent of dropouts statewide (Table 14). Similarly, the majority of GED transfers statewide had not taken examinations in each of the five subject areas (Table 15). Statewide, about 14 percent of dropouts and 7 percent of GED transfers had taken the Regents English examination. At most, 11 percent of students in these groups had taken the U.S. history examination.

Table 14

Regents Examination Performance of General-Education Students Who Dropped Out

Examination	Not Tested	Percent of Tested Students Scoring
		0-54	55-64	65-100
English	85.6%	4.8%	2.6%	7.0%
Mathematics	74.7	11.7	3.6	10.0
Global History	72.4	9.4	4.2	13.9
U.S. History	89.0	3.0	1.5	6.5
Science	69.5	8.2	4.9	17.5

 

 

Table 15

Regents Examination Performance of General-Education Students Who Transferred to GED Programs

Examination	Not Tested	Percent of Tested Students Scoring
		0-54	55-64	65-100
English	93.0%	2.1%	1.3%	3.7%
Mathematics	80.8	8.6	2.7	7.8
Global History	82.2	5.3	3.7	8.8
U.S. History	95.3	1.2	0.8	2.7
Science	73.1	7.6	4.3	15.0

 

Patterns of Regents Examination Scores for General-Education Students Who First Entered Grade 9 in 2000-01

This analysis examines patterns of scores on Regents examinations for general-education students who first entered grade 9 in 2000. The stated goal of the Board of Regents is to require a score of 65 on five Regents examinations for students to receive a high school diploma. In October 2003, the Board of Regents voted to extend the 55-65 safety net to all cohorts of students who first enter grade 9 in the 2004-05 school year or earlier. As requested by the Board of Regents, this analysis examines the effect of different score requirements on the percentage of students meeting the requirements. The analysis examines the effect of four Score Requirement Patterns:

1.      requiring a score of 65 or higher on the required Regents examinations;

2.      requiring an average score of 65, with at least four scores of 65 or higher and no score lower than 55;

3.      requiring an average score of 65, with no score lower than 55; and

4.      maintaining the “low-pass” score of 55.

 

In evaluating the results of this analysis, readers should consider that, for students in this group, the required score to earn a high school diploma was 55. If the required score had been 65, additional students might have had the required preparation to achieve that score.

The analysis focuses on general-education students because students with disabilities who do not pass one of more of the required Regents examinations may meet testing requirements for the local diploma by passing the corresponding RCT(s) or the Department-approved alternatives. This option covers students with disabilities entering grade 9 through the 2009-10 school year.

Over 130,000 general-education students in the study had scores on the five required Regents examinations; 77.2 percent of these students had earned a score of 65 or higher on all five required examinations by the end of four years of high school (Table 16). An additional 9.7 percent had an average score on the five examinations of 65 or higher, with at least four scores above 64 and no score below 55. If the requirement to score 65 or higher on four examinations was removed, an additional 2.4 percent would have met the assessment requirement. Almost 92 percent of these students scored 55 or higher on all five required examinations.

A smaller percentage (60.0 percent) of New York City general-education students than such students statewide had passing scores on five required Regents examinations. An additional 16.0 percent of these students would have successfully met the Score Requirement Pattern 2.

Compared with the Regents goal, requiring 65 or higher on all examinations, either Score Requirement Pattern 2 or 3 would increase the number of students meeting assessment requirements for graduation. An additional 12,678 general-education students, including 5,820 New York City students, would have met the Score Requirement Pattern 2.

 

Table 16

Number and Percentage of General-Education Students Who First Entered Grade 9 in 2000-01 Meeting Various Regents Examination Score Requirements

Score Requirement Pattern	Total State			New York City
	Number of Students	Percen-tage of Students	Addi-tional Percen-tage Meeting Require-ment	Number of Students	Percen-tage of Students	Addi-tional Percen-tage Meeting Require-ment
Students with scores on five exams	130,924			36,456
1) Students with a score of 65 or higher on five exams	101,123	77.2%		21,887	60.0%
2) Students with an average score of 65 or higher on five exams, at least four scores above 65 and all scores above 55	113,801	86.9%	9.7%	27,707	76.0%	16.0%
3) Students with an average score of 65 or higher on five exams and no score below 55	116,939	89.3%	2.4%	29,337	80.5%	4.5 %
4) Students with scores of 55 or higher on five exams	120,058	91.7%	2.4%	31,431	86.2%	5.7%

An additional 10,520 general-education students in this study had taken only four of the five required examinations by June 30 of their fourth year of high school. Many of these students could be expected to complete the graduation requirements in August or in the next school year. A second analysis examined the effect of the various score requirements on the probability that these students would be able to complete the testing requirements for graduation. Table 17 shows that 41.1 percent of students with exactly four scores had scored 65 or higher on the four examinations and thus could meet the most rigorous requirement (1) by taking the fifth examination and scoring 65. About 63 percent of students with four scores had scored 55 or higher on all four examinations. These students could meet the current graduation requirement (4) by scoring 55 or higher on the fifth examination.

Only 22.6 percent of the 4,626 New York City general-education students who had taken only four examinations had scored 65 or higher on each, compared with 47.3 percent who had scored 55 or higher on each.  Allowing students to score below 65 on one examination provided that they maintained an average score of 65 or higher would have increased the percentage of general-education students meeting the requirements to 36.8 percent.

 

Table 17

Number and Percentage of General-Education Students Who First Entered Grade 9 in 2000-01 With Only Four Regents Examination Scores Who Might Meet Selected Regents Examination Score Requirements

Score Requirement Pattern	Total State			New York City
	Number of Students	Percen-tage of Students	Addi-tional Percen-tage Meeting Require-ment	Number of Students	Percen-tage of Students	Addi-tional Percen-tage Meeting Require-ment
Students with scores on four exams	10,520			4,626
1) Students with a score of 65 or higher on four exams	4,320	41.1%		1,045	22.6%
2) Students with an average score of 65 or higher on four exams, at least three scores above 65 and all scores above 55	5,741	54.6%	13.5%	1,703	36.8%	14.2%
3) Students with an average score of 65 or higher on four exams and no score below 55	6,041	57.4%	2.9%	1,847	39.9%	3.1%
4) Students with scores of 55 or higher on five exams	6,596	62.7%	5.3%	2,190	47.3%	7.4%

 

Tables 16 and 17 present results for 141,444 general-education students who had taken Regents examination in four or five of the required areas. In addition, 6,444 students took examinations in three areas; 5,625 students took examinations in two areas; and 6,847 students took an examination in one area. The remaining 17,690 general-education students had no reported Regents examination scores.

Of the 23,438 general-education students and students with disabilities with no reported Regents examination scores, 10.5 percent were LEP; 24.5 percent were disabled, and 57.1 percent were enrolled in New York City schools. Of those students with one to three reported Regents examination scores, 11.0 percent were LEP, 16.9 percent were disabled, and 53.6 percent were enrolled in New York City schools.

 

Appendix A

 

This study includes students who first enrolled in grade 9 during the 2000-01 school year (or were ungraded and reached their seventeenth birthday during that school year) and who were enrolled in a public school in New York State in at least part of the 2001-02, 2002-03, or 2003-04 school years and for whom a district submitted a STEP record in August 2004.

The 2004 STEP file included records for 222,720 students reported to have first entered grade 9 in 2000-01. Of those records, 199,312 reported students who had graduated, dropped out, entered a GED program, or were still enrolled in the district as of June 30, 2004. Of these records, 175,874 included scores on one or more Regents examinations, 54,835 for New York City students and 121,039 for students in rest of State districts.

Records for 23,408 students reported that the student had transferred to another district at some time between first entering grade 9 in the 2000-01 school year and June 30, 2004. These records were assumed to be duplicates of records reported by the district to which the student transferred. Therefore, records ending in transfers to another district were not included in the study. 

Note that STEP files submitted between 2002 and 2004 were cumulative; that is, districts were instructed to resubmit records for all students who were reported the previous year even if the student was no longer enrolled in the district. Districts with transfer students were instructed to report scores for these students taken before the student entered the district. The reporting of cumulative scores is necessary to correctly determine the accountability status of schools and districts. For example, if a student transferred to a new district between 10th and 11th grade, the student would be a member of the accountability cohort of the new school and that school must report his grade 10 Regents mathematics score to receive credit for his performance and participation in mathematics.  This requirement leads to duplicate reporting of examination scores for transfer students and the necessity to eliminate these scores from the study.

Not all districts reported Regents examination scores earned before the students entered the district. The STEP file included 783 graduates with no Regents examination scores. Therefore, this study underestimates the number of tests taken by students in this cohort. This problem will be solved when the unique identifier and repository system are implemented. At that time, students’ scores will be linked to them through the identifiers, regardless of where they move in the State.